Tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a new level of intensity following a series of Indian airstrikes, including a strategic attack on the Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The incident has triggered not only military concerns but also a serious diplomatic standoff over water resources, as India has now signaled it may withdraw from the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a cornerstone of peacekeeping between the two nations since 1960.
The escalation follows a deadly attack on April 22 in Indian-administered Kashmir, reportedly orchestrated by a Pakistani-based militant group, although Islamabad has denied any involvement. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, citing national security and sovereignty, declared a shift in water-sharing policy, stating that India’s water resources would now be used primarily for domestic needs. In a concrete move, India lowered the sluice gates at the Baglihar dam to reduce the Chenab River’s flow into Pakistan, alarming both environmentalists and geopolitical analysts.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, grants Pakistan rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) and India rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). Despite past conflicts, the treaty has largely withstood political upheavals. However, India’s latest actions could jeopardize the agreement, especially if it starts withholding crucial hydrological data during monsoons or interferes with river flows more aggressively. Experts note that while India lacks the infrastructure to fully divert river systems without substantial investments, even partial disruptions could gravely impact Pakistan's agriculture and hydroelectric energy sectors, especially in dry seasons.
Pakistan has condemned India's move, declaring any interference in water supply an “act of war.” Analysts warn that water-related conflicts could escalate into larger military confrontations, especially given the nuclear capabilities of both nations. Moreover, climate change and regional water scarcity exacerbate the risks, as both countries depend heavily on Himalayan-fed rivers for irrigation and electricity.
This latest episode underscores a dangerous convergence of environmental stress and geopolitical hostility. While calls for renewed diplomacy are growing, the lack of a clear conflict-resolution mechanism within the Indus Waters Treaty for scenarios like this means tensions could continue to spiral. The situation calls for urgent multilateral engagement to prevent long-term damage to both regional stability and the environment.
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